Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
